Wildfire Probability

Europe’s operational fire danger forecast runs from meteorological models at around 8 to 10 kilometres. That is the right scale for a national warning and the wrong scale for deciding where to pre-position a crew, close a road or clear a firebreak. This service downscales the picture by adding what satellites see and weather models cannot: the actual state of the fuel.

Live fuel moisture is estimated from Sentinel-2 vegetation and water indices together with thermal data, fuel type and load come from land cover, and terrain contributes slope and aspect, which govern how fire spreads once started. These combine with the meteorological fire weather index and with ignition-proximity factors (roads, settlements, power lines) into a probability surface at tens of metres rather than kilometres.

Two modes serve two decisions: a seasonal susceptibility map for planning fuel management and resource placement, and a short-horizon danger map that updates as fuel dries and weather turns. The honest framing is important, this ranks relative likelihood across a landscape very well, and it will not tell anyone that a specific hectare will burn on a specific day.